The stock market experienced significant fluctuations this week following the release of a thought-provoking paper titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” published by Citrini Research. The speculative document, co-authored by Citrini and Alap Shah, explores a future characterized by rapid advancements in agentic AI and automation, projecting a transformative yet troubling economic landscape by 2028.
According to the paper, the continual refinement of AI could lead to a dramatic reduction in labor costs and an increase in productivity, as machines take on complex and manual tasks without the limitations faced by human workers. The authors argue that professions traditionally burdened by tedious complexities—such as financial advising, tax preparation, and routine legal work—could be dramatically disrupted as AI agents emerge to handle these responsibilities with ease.
This hypothetical scenario initially paints a rosy picture for the stock market, with expanding profit margins and favorable earnings reports. However, the authors warn that such advancements could ultimately destabilize the economy. Businesses, aiming to capitalize on reduced operational costs, might resort to significant layoffs of white-collar employees, favoring machine intelligence over human expertise. This trend could lead to a notable decrease in consumer spending, as displaced workers tighten their budgets in the face of rising unemployment.
The paper predicts a concerning unemployment rate of 10.2%, triggered by what it describes as a “negative feedback loop with no natural brake.” As companies grapple with shrinking profits and increased investor pressure, the cycle of layoffs could perpetuate itself, resulting in further economic downturns.
Although Citrini emphasizes that the document is not intended as a prediction, its publication has stirred anxiety among investors already wary of the implications of AI on labor markets. Stocks of companies mentioned in the paper, including DoorDash and Mastercard, experienced noticeable declines shortly after its release on February 22, underscoring the immediate impact of investors’ concerns.
Market analysts have scrutinized the herd-like behavior exhibited by investors in response to the paper, highlighting pre-existing fears surrounding AI’s potential to replace human jobs and the overvaluation of tech stocks. Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” described the experiment as a “stunning, well-written, incredibly pessimistic paper,” suggesting that it presents a bearish view of the AI market rather than an optimistic one.
While the scenarios proposed by Citrini may appear extreme, they raise essential questions about the true motivations behind AI implementation across various industries. Many organizations are increasingly integrating AI into their operations, pursuing return on investment (ROI) while facing an environment rife with layoffs. However, the authors caution against a singular focus on cost savings and productivity enhancements.
Citrini’s concluding remarks offer a glimmer of optimism, asserting that society still has time to proactively address these challenges. “As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won’t survive the decade,” the paper states. It urges business leaders to reflect on the fundamental purpose of their AI initiatives, asking critical questions about product differentiation, market impact, and employee reskilling.
The message is clear: companies should consider their long-term strategies and avoid falling into the trap of excessive dependency on automation. By doing so, they may prevent the dire consequences envisioned in Citrini’s speculative future, as they navigate an increasingly AI-driven landscape.
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