In the wake of the Arab Spring, governments across the Middle East are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to bolster their surveillance capabilities and predict potential dissent. With the innovations in conflict forecasting, these tools present both a promise of better resource allocation for humanitarian efforts and a grave risk of enabling authoritarian regimes to suppress political opposition before it manifests.
Reflecting on the events that unfolded in Tunisia in December 2010, when fruit seller Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation sparked a nationwide uprising, one wonders how the authoritarian Ben Ali regime might have responded if it had access to AI-powered forecasting tools. While the Tunisian government lacked such technology, many contemporary authoritarian regimes in the Middle East are now equipped to leverage similar advancements to monitor and clamp down on dissent.
The field of conflict forecasting has evolved significantly with the advent of machine learning and the availability of large datasets. Analysts can now harness vast amounts of historical information—from media reports to real-time conflict trackers—to identify emerging risks. “Our model is adaptable and with a little tweak, we could produce [protest predictions] easily,” says Christopher Rauh, a professor of economics and data science at Cambridge University, who co-founded ConflictForecast. However, his organization refrains from publishing predictions on protests, arguing that such data could be misused by oppressive regimes.
Rauh cautions that while current models work on averages and may not be finely detailed enough to predict individual behaviors—such as Bouazizi’s tragic act—they carry the potential for misuse as the technology advances. The increasing sophistication of AI in analyzing factors ranging from economic indicators to demographic trends suggests that future systems could become more adept at pinpointing dissent.
Despite the promise of improved humanitarian response, experts are wary of the implications. Damini Satija, director of Amnesty Tech, emphasizes that these tools could reproduce existing biases in data and simplify the complexities of human behavior into misleading indicators. For instance, predictive policing—an area where AI has already made strides—relies heavily on historical data, which can exacerbate systemic errors and lead to unfair targeting of individuals.
The implications for the Middle East are particularly pressing. Researchers like Arash Beidollahkhani from Manchester University note that technology has long been intertwined with political control in the region. Authoritarian governments have historically relied on surveillance and coercion, and AI technologies have further heightened these capacities. Nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, and Bahrain have employed advanced computing to monitor and suppress opposition movements.
In Egypt, for instance, digital communications are monitored closely, and activists face prosecution for their social media activities. The New Administrative Capital, a government project, is set to feature over 6,000 cameras, raising concerns among digital rights experts regarding its potential for exploitation. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia employs facial recognition technology in pilgrimage sites and aims to deploy emotion-recognition systems in smart cities like Neom, still under development.
The UAE stands out as one of the most advanced countries in predictive policing, using extensive surveillance data for crime prevention. Their “safe city” initiatives involve analyzing vast amounts of data, including behavioral analysis and facial recognition, to preemptively identify criminal activity. The financial resources and political infrastructure available to the UAE further position it to integrate AI-powered forecasting into its governance.
Critically, AI technologies utilized in the UAE are often sourced from China, a nation that has effectively employed similar tools for domestic suppression. Satija warns that if any government, regardless of type, aims to crack down on dissent, it will likely leverage AI tools to facilitate this agenda. These technologies already pose a significant threat, extending chilling effects on activists who fear identification and prosecution should they choose to protest.
As AI continues to evolve, the balance between enhancing humanitarian efforts and enabling repression will be a crucial battleground. The potential for misuse of conflict forecasting technologies by authoritarian regimes raises significant ethical considerations and underscores the need for oversight. The developments in this space will likely shape not only the political landscape of the Middle East but also the broader narrative of governance and civil rights in the digital age.
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