Photo by Patrick D. Lewis
Catholic University’s Department of Politics hosted a panel discussion on artificial intelligence (AI) and its implications for geopolitics on December 4. The discussion featured Dr. Victor McCrary, the university’s vice provost for national security innovation, and Ambassador Ramón Blecua, a seasoned Spanish diplomat with experience in Iraq, India, and other global locales. Dr. Michael Promisel, a politics professor, moderated the gathering.
Blecua and McCrary delved into the transformative effects of AI on geopolitics, emphasizing Catholic University’s role in the ensuing debates. Blecua described the event as an “excellent opportunity to debate, discuss, and bring up ideas about the kind of world in which we are heading.” He identified four pivotal topics that AI influences: geography, technology, demography, and ideology, asserting that AI is reshaping narratives, not just geopolitics, in ways that are rapidly evolving.
According to Blecua, these four topics have drastically changed since he began his career 35 years ago. Current issues such as trade routes, Arctic activities, and climate change have gained prominence, with Russia and China reemerging as near-peer competitors. He referred to this phenomenon as part of a “return of Eurasia,” suggesting that historical rivalries among world empires are being rehashed by contemporary powers in Asia and the Middle East. This indicates a significant erosion of the “liberal international order” established by the U.S. and allies after World War II, which Blecua believes is increasingly being questioned, particularly within the U.S.
Further, Blecua noted the diminishing relevance of the United Nations, raising concerns about a potentially more dangerous world. He warned that the great power competitions reminiscent of the 19th century are resurfacing, with AI development playing a critical role in this new race for dominance. Blecua characterized the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as the “first AI war in history,” highlighting its potential dangers.
As geopolitics evolves, Blecua pointed out that non-state actors—including terrorists, cartels, and legitimate enterprises—are becoming increasingly significant players. He mentioned that even the Church is now recognized as an influential actor, exemplified by Pope Leo’s reception during his recent Middle East trip, which underscored the diminishing status of traditional state leaders.
McCrary discussed the complexities of AI development in the U.S., where private sector entities increasingly dominate the field. He noted that commercial interests complicate government oversight, contrasting this with China, where state control allows for tighter regulation of AI technologies. However, McCrary expressed that China is less focused on regulation compared to the U.S., where consumer choice and electoral accountability provide citizens with a degree of influence over AI policy.
The ethical dimensions of AI were another focal point of McCrary’s discussion. He underscored the significance of the “theory of mind” in AI development, which poses risks if advanced AI systems operate without human oversight. “Who’s gonna play that role in between?” he questioned, expressing concerns about the opacity of AI decision-making processes. He urged the audience to consider the implications of causality in AI actions, emphasizing the responsibility of CUA students and faculty to engage in conversations on AI ethics.
As the U.S. enters a new phase of competition with China, McCrary highlighted the importance of influence in the Global South, where China’s Belt and Road Initiative has garnered trust among many nations. He suggested that the U.S. should leverage its immigrant population, particularly first, second, and third-generation individuals from these regions, to build stronger ties. McCrary emphasized that Catholic University’s diverse demographic can serve as a platform for these critical discussions.
In conclusion, both McCrary and Blecua stressed the necessity of instilling a “moral compass” in AI development, a quality that technology cannot achieve on its own. “What we need is a moral compass,” Blecua stated, raising the essential question of humanity’s ability to embed ethical principles into AI systems.
For more information on AI and its implications, visit the OpenAI website or explore insights from IBM on responsible AI development.
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