AI Forecast for Georgia in 2026
Five artificial intelligence models—ChatGPT, Grok, Claude AI, DeepSeek AI, and GigaChat—were queried about the political and social landscape in Georgia by the end of 2026. Their assessments suggest significant political continuity under the ruling Georgian Dream party, further distancing from the EU and NATO, and a notable increase in emigration.
Regarding the likelihood of the Georgian Dream party remaining in power, responses varied but indicated a general consensus on continuity. ChatGPT estimates a 55–65% probability that the party will endure through the end of 2026, citing its control over key institutions such as the parliamentary majority, the courts, and media outlets as critical to its stability. Although the party is likely to face challenges, it appears well-placed to maintain its grip on power, albeit in a potentially weakened state characterized by increased authoritarianism.
Grok aligns with this view, stating that the party’s control over institutions, combined with economic growth and pragmatic ties with Russia, is likely to ensure its continued dominance. The model notes that any change in power would likely necessitate significant public unrest or international pressure, both of which appear currently absent. Claude AI offers a more optimistic projection for Georgian Dream, suggesting a 75–80% probability of its survival, bolstered by a robust economic performance of 7.9% growth in 2025.
DeepSeek AI also sees a strong likelihood of the party remaining in power, estimating a 70% chance, while GigaChat refrained from making predictions. The overarching sentiment points to a fragmented opposition that struggles to unify against the ruling party, thereby diminishing its ability to exert meaningful pressure.
On the geopolitical front, all models predict that by the end of 2026, Georgia will move further from both the EU and NATO. ChatGPT assigns a 60–70% probability to this outcome, attributing it to internal political choices rather than external rejections. Grok highlights the stagnation of Georgia’s candidate status for EU membership, suggesting that meaningful accession by 2030 is increasingly unlikely.
Claude AI foresees a growing isolation for Georgia, with the government likely continuing to suppress opposition and utilize anti-European rhetoric. In contrast, DeepSeek AI posits that Georgia has moved slightly closer to EU membership, although this perspective stands alone among the forecasts. GigaChat declined to comment on this matter.
Emigration figures are expected to surge, with estimates from ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude AI suggesting that between 60,000 and 80,000 people will leave Georgia in 2026, driven by a lack of economic opportunities and ongoing political instability. Claude AI warns of a potential “wave of political emigration,” predicting that the number could reach 100,000 if the EU proceeds to suspend Georgia’s visa-free regime. Conversely, DeepSeek AI estimates a lower figure of 20,000 to 30,000 emigrants, while GigaChat predicts 10,000 to 20,000, contingent upon maintaining socio-economic stability.
Turning to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, models from ChatGPT, Grok, and Claude AI anticipate that the war will persist, although a temporary ceasefire remains a possibility. ChatGPT assesses a 40–50% chance of a frozen conflict, pointing to Russia’s resilience under sanctions and Ukraine’s refusal to capitulate. Grok adds that with Russia’s slow advance in Donetsk and high casualties, the likelihood of the war continuing into 2027 is around 75%. Meanwhile, DeepSeek AI posits a 60% chance of the conflict ending, contingent on sudden political shifts.
As these AI models provide forecasts, they reflect broader geopolitical trends and domestic conditions that will shape Georgia’s trajectory over the next few years, underscoring the intricate interplay of internal governance and international relations. The evolving landscape will likely influence not only political stability but also the future prospects for Georgia’s relationship with the West and its own citizens.
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