Geopolitical risks and trade tensions are the primary concerns for global finance as the industry approaches 2026, according to a new survey from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). The latest findings from the Systemic Risk Barometer indicate that these threats are perceived as more significant than cyber risks and economic slowdowns in the United States.
In its annual survey, which has been conducted since 2013, DTCC revealed that 78% of respondents identified geopolitical risks and trade tensions as among their top five threats. This marks the fourth consecutive year that this category has dominated the survey results, underscoring ongoing global instability and trade disputes that continue to strain financial markets.
Following closely, cyber risk was cited by 63% of participants as a major concern, reflecting heightened anxiety over the threat of cyber attacks targeting financial institutions. Respondents are particularly wary of potential operational disruptions and the contagion effects such incidents could have across the sector.
Concerns regarding a slowdown in the US economy also significantly featured, with 41% of respondents ranking it as a top five risk, placing it third overall. Market volatility and the potential for sudden dislocations in financial markets were cited by 38% of those surveyed, alongside similar concerns about uncertainty over US monetary and fiscal policy.
The survey highlighted a growing unease regarding the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and financial technology (fintech) within the financial sector. Some 34% of participants mentioned excessive global debt and inflation as top risks, with 33% flagging fintech in their top five concerns. DTCC attributed this apprehension partially to the increasing use of AI tools across financial services.
Among the risks associated with AI, cybersecurity and data protection vulnerabilities were the most cited, with 41% of respondents expressing concern. This signals a belief that unchecked AI adoption could broaden the attack surface for cyber threats or jeopardize sensitive client data.
AI-generated misinformation was also a significant worry, with 38% of respondents citing the risks associated with inaccurate outputs or hallucinations. As firms begin to leverage generative AI for tasks such as trading and client communications, this concern highlights the potential for AI to mislead decision-makers or regulators.
Governance issues were flagged by 37% of participants, who warned about insufficient controls and oversight in AI applications. Additionally, 34% cautioned against an overreliance on AI solutions for critical processes, pointing to the need for robust frameworks to manage these emerging technologies.
Tim Cuddihy, DTCC Group Chief Risk Officer, remarked on the overarching uncertainty reflected in the survey responses. “A common theme across the survey responses was concern over uncertainty—whether economic, geopolitical, or tied to emerging technologies like AI,” he noted. “Respondents also flagged concentration risks, such as heavy reliance on a few technology providers or platforms, warning that new technologies like AI and quantum computing could introduce fresh pathways for contagion and systemic events.”
The survey introduced a new question regarding the impact of quantum computing on cybersecurity. Only 29% of respondents indicated that their organizations are actively planning for such risks, while 25% acknowledged quantum computing as a risk but have no current plans to address it. This suggests a significant gap between industry awareness of the potential threat posed by quantum technologies and actual preparedness.
Financial regulators have increasingly warned that quantum computing could eventually disrupt widely used cryptographic methods essential for secure communications and transaction processing. The survey findings indicate that many firms are still in the early stages of planning for a post-quantum environment.
DTCC emphasized the importance of industry-wide coordination in addressing these emerging risks, particularly as it provides vital post-trade services, including clearing and settlement, across various asset classes. The organization serves as a nexus for transaction flows between broker-dealers, custodian banks, and asset managers.
Cuddihy stressed that open dialogue within the industry is crucial. “The most effective tool to navigate uncertainty is industry-wide communication and collaboration. DTCC remains committed to fostering open dialogue and engagement to strengthen resilience and mitigate systemic risks,” he stated.
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