As infrastructure investors approach 2026, they are shifting their priorities in response to escalating geopolitical risks, increasing pressures for capital deployment, and a structural pivot towards digital and energy-transition assets. According to Corey Lewis, managing director of North America Transaction Solutions at Aon, the sentiment among investors has transitioned from a state of complacency to one focused on execution amid constraints.
“Investor sentiment has shifted toward heightened geopolitical risk recognition, accelerated capital deployment pressure, and a structural reprioritization toward digital and energy-transition assets,” Lewis noted. His observations are corroborated by Aon’s survey data, which highlights that 32% of respondents perceive geopolitical tensions as the primary driver of buy/sell appetite, while 68% consider it the largest challenge to capital deployment.
Despite the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties, a significant number of investors remain optimistic about pricing. “Ninety-two percent still expect valuations to rise, driven primarily by deployment pressure from accumulated dry powder rather than improvements in fundamentals,” Lewis stated. As policy timelines tighten, sponsors in the clean-energy sector are racing to secure incentives tied to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) before any potential changes, leading to an acceleration in financing and pipeline activities.
This urgency is particularly pronounced within the digital asset sector. “Digital infrastructure, especially data centers, is now the highest-priority subsector, reflecting unprecedented AI-driven load growth and constrained grid capacity,” Lewis remarked.
Why global capital keeps flowing to the US
Even as geopolitical tensions intensify around the globe, the United States continues to attract a disproportionate amount of infrastructure capital, largely due to its unmatched scale and liquidity. “The US maintains unmatched scale, liquidity, and project throughput. Market depth across digital, energy transition, midstream, and renewables continues to exceed other jurisdictions,” Lewis explained. Aon’s survey indicates that 56% of respondents identify Europe as a primary source of capital, while 52% point to the UK.
This ongoing uncertainty has created a sense of urgency among investors. “Even with the uncertainty surrounding the OBBBA, 48% of global investors reported increased appetite to invest in the US, driven by the desire to capture incentives before further policy recalibration,” Lewis added. “Amid policy uncertainty, the US continues to offer the most efficient risk-adjusted environment for deploying large-scale infrastructure capital.”
Geopolitical fragmentation has transitioned from a secondary consideration to a central element in infrastructure underwriting. “Geopolitical fragmentation is now the single most disruptive force in infrastructure deployment,” Lewis stated, noting its impact on diligence timelines, supply-chain assumptions, and valuation dispersion. Investors are now quantifying these risks, with survey respondents emphasizing sanctions exposure, route disruption, and regulatory scrutiny as critical deal execution risks.
Supply-chain instability further complicates these challenges, raising construction costs and elongating delivery schedules. “Investors are selectively pricing geopolitical risk into required returns and, in some cases, avoiding regions where permitting or national-security reviews may introduce execution friction,” Lewis explained.
While potential changes tied to the OBBBA have not slowed development, they have accelerated it. “Renewable energy sponsors continue to fast-track construction to maintain eligibility for tax credits,” Lewis noted. The transferability of tax credits remains vital for financing, and this market continues to expand despite ongoing policy recalibrations.
AI-driven demand is reshaping infrastructure investment priorities, especially in power and digital assets. “AI has become a central demand determinant for power, land, and interconnection,” Lewis emphasized. With global electricity consumption from data centers projected to more than double by 2030, and US AI-driven demand potentially increasing thirty-fold by 2035, investor behavior is shifting accordingly.
As a result, utilities and independent power producers are responding by accelerating investments in storage, flexible generation, and grid reinforcement, creating convergent opportunities across both digital and energy-transition sectors. Grid limitations are increasingly influencing development timelines and M&A pricing, with grid congestion posing significant challenges for renewable and digital infrastructure projects.
Competition for high-quality assets remains fierce, fueled by abundant capital availability, currently standing at approximately $335 billion. “The pressure to deploy capital is the largest expected driver of valuation uplift over the next 12–24 months,” Lewis stated, with 40% of respondents identifying it as the principal factor.
Lewis anticipates that as deployment deadlines tighten, competitive bidding will re-emerge, with sponsors willing to transact closer to full pricing for assets with robust fundamentals and clear regulatory visibility. The strongest valuation pressure is noted in sectors tied to power demand and connectivity, particularly digital infrastructure, which is experiencing significant upward valuation pressure due to heightened demand from hyperscale data centers.
As investors look toward 2026, Lewis highlights a growing emphasis on cyber and supply chain risks in core diligence. “Cyber risk has escalated to a top operational concern,” he said, noting that 96% of investors conduct regular cybersecurity assessments and that supply chain vulnerabilities have also sharply increased.
Ultimately, Lewis concludes that execution capability, rather than capital availability, will emerge as the key differentiator among infrastructure investors in the coming years. As geopolitical instability, climate-driven disruptions, and cyber threats remain prominent, opportunities tied to accelerated AI demand and scaled energy-transition investments will continue to shape the future of infrastructure investment.
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