Mastercard released its annual economic outlook, indicating that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is experiencing stable growth amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and advancements in artificial intelligence. The report, published on December 9, 2026, projected global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to ease slightly to 3.1% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.2% in 2025.
David Mann, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Mastercard, emphasized the region’s resilience during a time of significant global trade upheaval. “Given its centrality to global trade, Asia Pacific has shown remarkable resilience at a time when tariff uncertainty and shifting supply chains have threatened to upend international commerce,” Mann stated. He noted that the outlook for consumers in the region remains largely positive, highlighting improved microeconomic conditions even as trade realignments and technological shifts take center stage globally.
The Mastercard report outlines major economic forces shaping the APAC region in the coming year. One significant factor is the restructuring of trade routes due to tariffs, particularly as China diversifies its exports following a decline in the United States’ share of eCommerce sales—from 28% in 2024 to 24% this August. The integration of AI technologies and targeted fiscal support are also expected to provide momentum, with countries such as Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea leading the way in corporate and consumer AI adoption.
Travel continues to be one of the most robust economic drivers for the region. For instance, Singapore’s outbound travel expenditure in the first half of this year was $2.7 billion higher than in 2019, while Indonesia and the Philippines reported increases in outbound spending of 40% and 28%, respectively. These figures illustrate the region’s capacity for recovery and growth, particularly in the tourism sector.
While the Mastercard report highlights opportunities, it also addresses potential risks that could impede global economic growth. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the reconfiguration of supply chains are creating pockets of fragmentation that could lead to unpredictability in trade and production. The report warns that the uneven distribution of technological advancements might pose policy and growth challenges for certain markets.
In a conversation earlier this year, Raymond Cui, country manager for China at Nuvei, commented on the diverse economic landscape of the APAC region. “APAC is a very vast and diverse market,” Cui noted, mentioning the contrasts between mature markets like Japan and Korea, developing markets like mainland China, and emerging markets such as Indonesia and Thailand. This diversity presents both challenges and opportunities for payment companies looking to establish a presence in the region.
As businesses navigate these complexities, staying informed about underlying demand trends will be essential to seizing opportunities for growth in the Asia-Pacific market. The Mastercard findings underscore the importance of adaptability and responsiveness in an era marked by rapid technological change and evolving trade dynamics.
Looking ahead, the economic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region is positioned to evolve amidst both challenges and opportunities. While fiscal stimulus and technological innovation are likely to drive growth, the uneven pace of this progress will necessitate careful policy considerations and strategic planning across various markets.
For further developments and insights into the changing economic climate, stakeholders are encouraged to monitor trends in AI implementation and trade adjustments as they unfold in the coming years.
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