Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings showcased a blend of impressive revenue growth and concerning expenditures, sparking renewed investor scrutiny over its capital spending trajectory. For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, Microsoft reported revenues of $81.3 billion, marking a 17% increase year-over-year, while operating income rose 21% to $38.3 billion. The company’s cloud division achieved a significant milestone, surpassing $50 billion in revenues for the first time, with Azure and other cloud services growing 39%. Despite these solid results, Microsoft’s stock fell nearly 5% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor unease regarding its capital expenditures.
Microsoft’s capital expenditure (capex) and finance leases for the quarter reached $37.5 billion, representing a staggering 66% increase from the same period last year and exceeding market expectations. In the first half of fiscal 2026, total capex amounted to $72.4 billion, suggesting the company is on track for approximately $100 billion in annual infrastructure investments. Notably, management indicated that about two-thirds of the second-quarter capex was allocated to short-lived assets, primarily GPUs and CPUs, while the remainder was directed towards long-term infrastructure designed to support monetization for the next 15 years or more.
The core tension within Microsoft’s investment strategy lies in the timing of these expenditures. Management acknowledged that customer demand continues to outstrip available supply, projecting a slight decline in operating margins for the fiscal third quarter, with the cost of goods sold expected to rise between 22% and 23%. While capital expenditures are anticipated to decrease sequentially in the third quarter, the mix of short-lived assets is expected to remain similar to that of the second quarter.
Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligation now stands at $625 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with 45% linked to commitments involving OpenAI. This backlog indicates significant future revenue potential but also signifies ongoing infrastructure obligations. As research and development costs escalate, Microsoft’s stock remains sensitive to any indication that its AI infrastructure investments are outpacing actual revenue generation.
Microsoft is not alone in grappling with these investment pressures. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has projected roughly $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, largely aimed at supporting AWS to accommodate rising AI and cloud demand. In the fourth quarter of 2025, AWS revenues reached $35.6 billion, yet Amazon shares experienced a notable decline following the spending forecast. Similarly, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), the parent company of Google, is anticipating capital expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion for 2026—nearly doubling its $91.4 billion spend in 2025. Both Amazon and Alphabet, like Microsoft, face intense investor scrutiny regarding whether their infrastructure-heavy AI investments will yield adequate returns before margin pressures mount.
Over the past six months, Microsoft’s shares have tumbled 21.2%, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry’s 24.5% decline but lagging behind the broader Computer and Technology sector’s 10.6% return. In terms of valuation, Microsoft shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 8.25X compared to the industry average of 6.92X, earning the company a Value Score of D.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 earnings now stands at $16.97 per share, reflecting an 8.4% increase over the past month, which translates to a projected year-over-year growth of 24.41%. Currently, Microsoft holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). As the technology giant navigates these challenges, the focus remains on whether its substantial investments will translate into revenue growth amidst an evolving market landscape.
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