The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) has forecasted a 9.5% increase in US advertising spending for 2026, driven by significant cyclical events and a pivotal shift towards agentic AI systems capable of executing autonomous campaigns. This projection, detailed in the recently released 2026 Outlook Study, stems from insights gathered from over 200 brands and agency buyers.
As the advertising sector evolves from experimental uses of AI to large-scale implementations, digital channels are set to capture a growing share of the market. Social media advertising is predicted to grow by 14.6%, while connected TV (CTV) is projected to see a 13.8% increase and commerce media is expected to expand by 12.1%. In contrast, linear television is facing a decline, with expected spending dropping by 1.7%. This marks a slower contraction than in previous years, aided temporarily by spikes in viewership associated with events such as the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and US midterm elections.
Five of the top six strategic priorities for advertisers are now closely tied to artificial intelligence capabilities, reflecting how quickly such technologies have transitioned from emerging tools to essential infrastructure. Approximately two-thirds of advertisers are now focusing on agentic AI for ad buying and campaign execution, underscoring the speed and scale at which these autonomous systems can operate compared to traditional manual workflows.
Cross-platform measurement has also become a priority, with 72% of advertisers emphasizing its importance, a notable increase from 64% year-over-year. This shift highlights the growing need to connect AI-driven implementations with measurable outcomes as automated decision-making systems gain traction across various platforms.
Meanwhile, 73% of marketers are prioritizing content that is optimized for AI-generated results, indicating a transformative effect of artificial intelligence not just on delivery methods but also on the foundational aspects of creative strategies and search visibility. Chris Bruderle, Vice President of Industry Insights & Content Strategy at IAB, noted, “AI is no longer a siloed initiative – it’s the connective tissue that links media, measurement, creative, and customer experience,” emphasizing the evolving role of AI as an intelligent partner in real-time campaign coordination.
While customer acquisition remains the primary goal for 54% of buyers, this figure represents a decline of 10 percentage points compared to last year. In contrast, the focus on driving repeat purchases has surged to 25%, nearly doubling from 13% in 2024. This shift is indicative of a maturing landscape of first-party data and rising acquisition costs, prompting advertisers to adopt retention-focused strategies. Retail media networks and customer relationship management (CRM) platforms are now increasingly enabling personalized and loyalty programs that effectively engage existing customers.
However, adapting to changing consumer habits has become the foremost investment challenge for 44% of marketers, surpassing concerns over macroeconomic factors. Understanding generative AI has emerged as a significant hurdle for 38% of advertisers, reflecting a 14-point increase from 2024. The tension between strategic ambitions and operational readiness is palpable, as many organizations report difficulties with system integration, data quality, and cross-platform orchestration.
Despite the positive growth projection of 9.5%, the advertising industry faces substantial challenges ahead. Digital advertising revenue reached $258.6 billion in 2024, with a year-over-year growth rate of 14.9%, laying a solid foundation for the forthcoming year. Yet, the forecast assumes stable macroeconomic conditions, which remain uncertain. Previous IAB research had downgraded 2025 growth forecasts due to tariff concerns and economic pressures affecting key sectors.
As the advertising landscape transitions towards agentic AI systems, significant infrastructure developments will be necessary across the ecosystem. The IAB Tech Lab has introduced a comprehensive roadmap to support the integration of AI-driven campaign execution without causing fragmentation among different frameworks. The need for standardized measurement practices becomes increasingly critical as automated systems proliferate, allowing advertisers to assess performance consistently and ensure brand safety.
In summary, the 2026 Outlook Study indicates a transformative period for the advertising industry, where the adoption of agentic AI systems will redefine operational strategies. IAB CEO David Cohen remarked, “Our report shows that in this growth cycle, innovation and experimentation are firmly taking priority,” underscoring the industry’s resilience and adaptability amid economic challenges. As companies navigate the complexities of both short-term event-driven opportunities and long-term changes in viewing habits, the focus on effective audience engagement and retention will be paramount in shaping future advertising strategies.
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