CEOs around the globe are expressing a marked decline in their revenue growth outlook for the next year compared to the findings from last year’s Global CEO Survey. This year, leaders show diminished confidence not only in the short-term revenue growth outlook but also to a lesser extent in the three-year forecast, indicating broader economic concerns.
While many CEOs maintain an overall optimism about the global economy’s growth prospects, their confidence in local economic conditions across various countries has waned. Industry-specific challenges have also contributed to this trend. For instance, leaders in the insurance sector are experiencing a downturn in confidence as a prolonged period of industry profitability comes to a close. Similarly, executives within the oil sector are grappling with weak demand and fears of oversupply, further dampening their projections.
Beyond these sector-specific issues, a range of near-term threats has raised concerns among CEOs. Macroeconomic volatility, cyber risk, technology disruption, and geopolitical tensions now take center stage in their considerations. Notably, the proportion of CEOs who believe their company is highly or extremely exposed to the risk of significant financial loss from cyber threats has surged to 31%, up from 24% in last year’s survey and 21% two years prior. Cyber risks now rank alongside macroeconomic volatility as the top threats identified by surveyed CEOs.
In response to these mounting challenges, about 84% of CEOs are planning to enhance their enterprise-wide cybersecurity practices, particularly as a reaction to geopolitical risks. This underscores the interconnected nature of the threats they face and reflects a proactive approach to risk management.
Another emerging concern for CEOs is the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, driven by governments recalibrating tax policies to bolster national interests, secure supply chains, and address fiscal challenges. One in five CEOs, or 20%, report that their company is highly or extremely exposed to the risk of significant financial loss from tariffs over the upcoming year. This trepidation varies greatly, with only 6% in the Middle East reporting high exposure, while 28% on the Chinese mainland, 30% in Turkey, and 35% in Mexico express similar concerns. In the United States, 22% of CEOs perceive a high risk, aligning closely with the global average.
Looking at the potential financial implications, nearly 29% of global CEOs believe that tariffs could compress their company’s net profit margin within the next year. In contrast, 60% expect little to no change, while only 6% anticipate an improvement in margins. Among those who foresee margin compression, most expect declines of less than 15%.
The findings from this year’s survey illustrate a cautionary stance among CEOs as they navigate an increasingly complex and volatile economic landscape. With rising concerns about cybersecurity and tariff-induced financial risks, the outlook for corporate revenue growth appears to be shifting. As companies prepare to adapt to these challenges, the upcoming year could see heightened efforts in risk management and strategic planning.
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