Nvidia plans to commence deliveries of its advanced H200 artificial intelligence chips to Chinese clients by mid-February 2026, strategically timed ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations. Reports indicate that the company has notified its customers of an initial shipment from existing inventory, which could involve between 5,000 and 10,000 modules, translating to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 processors.
The H200, built on Nvidia’s Hopper architecture, offers around six times the performance of its predecessor, the H20 model. This significant boost in capability has attracted interest from major industry players, including Alibaba and ByteDance, who are keen on enhancing their AI training and inference capabilities.
This development follows previously approved exports of the H200 under U.S. licensing, which includes a 25 percent surcharge and rigorous vetting of end-users. Nvidia is planning to ramp up production, with new orders expected in the second quarter of 2026. However, the company is still awaiting import approvals from Beijing, which could necessitate the bundling of these chips with domestic alternatives from manufacturers like Huawei or Moore Threads.
Nvidia has confirmed that these forthcoming sales will not affect supplies within the United States. Meanwhile, the Blackwell series of chips continues to face export bans to China, restricting access to some of the company’s latest technologies.
In contrast, India’s access to advanced Nvidia GPUs is subject to U.S. restrictions introduced in 2025. Under this framework, India falls into a middle tier with a capped total access equivalent to roughly 50,000 H100 GPUs through 2027, which could potentially be increased through bilateral agreements. Notably, small orders under 1,700 equivalents per shipment are exempt from this national quota.
The Indian government is bolstering its AI capabilities through the IndiaAI Mission, which was approved in March 2024 with a financial outlay of Rs 10,372 crore. This initiative aims to provide access to over 34,000 GPUs through public-private partnerships facilitated by the IndiaAI Compute Platform. Eligible users—including startups, researchers, and academic institutions—can utilize the compute resources at subsidized rates, with reductions of up to 40 percent available.
As nations grapple with the complexities of AI technology access and export controls, the ongoing developments in both China and India illustrate the geopolitical dynamics at play in the tech sector. With Nvidia’s latest offerings, the company is positioned to cater to burgeoning demand in these regions while navigating regulatory landscapes that continue to shift.
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