UK government departments appear to be at odds over the energy consumption projections of AI datacentres, raising concerns about the nation’s environmental strategies. The Department of Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) estimates that AI datacentres will demand 6GW of electricity by 2030, a stark contrast to the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero’s (DESNZ) projection of less than a tenth of that amount.
Tim Squirrell, head of strategy for the NGO Foxglove, criticized the government, stating, “The government’s cluelessness over the environmental impact of datacentres would be laughable, if it weren’t so alarming.” Cecilia Rikap, a researcher at University College London, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the discrepancy implies either incompetence or “some kind of magical thinking about AI and big tech.”
DESNZ is tasked with managing the UK’s carbon budget and delivery plan, which outlines how the nation aims to meet its international climate obligations. In January, Foxglove filed a request for an environmental impact assessment to understand how AI datacentres were incorporated into Britain’s emissions forecasts. However, DESNZ directed researchers to its broader figures for the energy consumption of the commercial services sector, stating it did not maintain separate projections for datacentre growth.
The sector’s energy use is expected to increase by 528MW between 2025 and 2030, equivalent to the annual consumption of 1.7 million homes by the end of the decade. This forecast is ten times lower than the electricity commitment made by the government for AI datacentres in its compute roadmap, published in 2025. This document outlines a “bold, long-term plan” aimed at transforming the UK’s computing ecosystem by establishing AI datacentres nationwide.
The roadmap specifies a need for at least 6GW of AI-capable datacentre capacity by 2030, with multiple AI growth zones across the country envisioned to attract investment. Each zone would necessitate at least 500MW of power, nearly matching DESNZ’s forecast for the entire commercial services sector’s energy consumption increase.
The origins of the discrepancies between the two departments’ projections remain unclear. Notably, following a request for comment from the Guardian, DSIT updated its figures for the total emissions of the AI datacentre sector, increasing them more than a hundredfold. Initially, DSIT projected additional AI computing capacity emissions between 0.025 million and 0.142 million tonnes of carbon equivalent (MtCO₂), which was less than 0.05% of the UK’s anticipated emissions. These figures were included in an annex of the compute roadmap.
This document was removed from the government website earlier this year after scrutiny from Carbon Brief regarding its plausibility. Following the Guardian’s inquiry, DSIT revised its projections, stating, “The UK’s cumulative 10-year greenhouse gas emissions from AI compute could range from 34 to 123 MtCO₂ – this is around 0.9-3.4% of the UK’s projected total emissions over the 10-year period.” It added that successful grid decarbonisation plans could help reduce emissions to the lower end of this range.
A DESNZ spokesperson confirmed that datacentre emissions are incorporated into their modeling, specifically for carbon budget 7, which is set to be released this summer. Meanwhile, a DSIT spokesperson referred the Guardian back to DESNZ for further clarification.
This growing disconnect between the government departments highlights the challenges the UK faces in balancing its ambitions to be a leader in AI with the urgent need to address climate change. As the debate continues, the implications for both the technology sector and environmental efforts remain significant.
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